S.Ye. Saukh, E.N. Dzhyhun
Èlektron. model. 2020, 42(6):18-33
A retrospective approach to building a model of electricity generation of Wind Power Plants (WPP) and Solar Power Plants (SPP) was applied. In this approach, data on electricity generation by WPP and SPP of previous periods are considered as a reflection of complex processes of conversion of variable wind energy and solar radiation by available generating equipment for electricity.The model is presented in such a mathematical form, which in the forecast period allows to take into account the impact of future climate change and the dynamics of the introduction of new capacities of WPP and SPP on the functioning of the electric power system. This model is easy to apply and ensures the adequacy of modeling the development of electric power systems with different shares of electricity production from Renewable Energy Sources. The results of application of the proposed retrospective model of electricity generation by WPP and SPP for modeling the development of the electric power systemin accordance with the scenario of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2035 are presented.
renewable energy, retrospective model, forecast.
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