2. Home
  3. ARCHIVE
  4. 2022
  5. VOL 44, NO 4 (2022)
  6. pp. 64-78

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE INVESTMENT POLICY IN THE WIND ENERGY SECTOR OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL TRENDS

V.S. Podgurenko, Yu. G. Kutsan, O.M. Getmanets, V.E.Terekhov

Èlektron. model. 2022, 44(4):64-78

https://doi.org/10.15407/emodel.44.04.064

ABSTRACT

The lack of information about the real results of the wind farms industrial operation in Ukraine, the existing tendency to hide the main technical characteristics of installed multi-megawatt wind turbines and their cost, creates insurmountable difficulties in evaluating their operation results. Based on studies of the evolution of the main parameters of wind turbines and the average (worldwide) cost of 1 MW of their rated power, original linear mathematical models are proposed for the first time, which allow determining the cost of wind turbines with given main parameters (rated power, diameter of the rotor and hub height) for any year of the study. With the use of previously developed and tested mathematical models of the annual electricity production of wind turbines of various power series in the wind and climate conditions of the Northern Black Sea region, the cost indicators of wind farms of Ukraine for 2021 were determined and their comparison with the indicators of the world's leading countries in wind energy was done.

KEYWORDS

annual energy production, cost, size.

REFERENCES

  1. Lyubas, D. (2013). “Wind energy of Ukraine: potential and development prospects”, Energetic, Vol. 7-8, pp. 24-27, available at: http://www.electrician.com.ua/files/EL_07- 13s_ p24-27.pdf.
  2. PA “Ukrainian Wind Energy Association” (2022), Vitroenerhetychnyi sektor Ukrainy 2021. Ohliad rynku za rik do viiny [Wind energy sector of Ukraine 2021. Market review a year before the war], available at: http://uwea.com.ua/uploads/docs/uwea_2021_ua_web_2.pdf.
  3. Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., Besseau, R., Jansen, M., Staffell, I., Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., Schmidt, J., Gruber, K., Simões, S. and Heier, S. (2020), “A parametric model for wind turbine power curves incorporating environmental conditions”, Renewable Energy, Vol. 157, pp.754-768.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.04.123
  4. Podhurenko, V., Kutsan, Yu., Getmanets, O. and Terekhov, V. (2021), “Modelling of cost indicators for wind turbines of multimegawatt class in various sizes”, IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 915, no. 012021, pp. 1-8.
    https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/915/1/012021
  5. Helgason, K. (2012), Selecting optimum location and type of wind turbines in Iceland, available at: https://skemman.is/bitstream/1946/12679/1/MScKristbjornHelgason.pdf
  6. Yang, H., Chen, J. and Pang, X. (2018), “Wind Turbine Optimization for Minimum Cost of Energy in Low Wind Speed Areas Considering Blade Length and Hub Height”, Applied Sciences, Vol. 8, no. 1202.
    https://doi.org/10.3390/app8071202
  7. IRENA (2012), Renewable energy technologies: cost analysis series. Volume 1: Power Sector. Issue 5/5.
  8. Bolinger M. and Wiser R. Wind Power Price Trends in the United States. Preprint of article published in Modern Energy Review. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2009. available at: https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/974157.
  9. Moné, C., Hand, M., Bolinger, M., Rand, J., Heimiller, D. and Ho, J. (2017), 2015 Cost of Wind Energy Review (Technical Report). NREL/TP-6A20-66861. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (US), available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/ fy17osti/66861.pdf.
    https://doi.org/10.2172/1366436
  10. Stehly, T., Beiter, Ph., Heimiller, D. and Scott, G. (2018). 2017 Cost of Wind Energy Review. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, available at: https://www.nrel. gov/docs/fy18osti/72167.
    https://doi.org/10.2172/1475534
  11. Tyler, S. and Beiter, Ph. (2020), 2018 Cost of Wind Energy Review. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/74598.pdf.
  12. Tyler, S., Beiter, Ph. and Duffy, P. (2020), 2019 Cost of Wind Energy Review. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/ pdf.
  13. Tyler, S. and Duffy, P. (2022), 2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81209.pdf.
  14. Podhurenko, V., Getmanets, O. and Terekhov, V. (2019), “Mathematical model of the efficiency problem and one of the methods of its solution for increasing the production of electricity by wind power stations”, Modeliuvannia ta informatsiini tekhnolohii, Vol. 86, pp. 50-
  15. Podhurenko, V. and Terekhov, V. (2022), “About the qualitative assessment of wind use in the wind-climatic conditions of the Northern Black Sea Region of Ukraine”, Vidnovliuvana enerhetyka ta enerhoefektyvnist u XXI stolitti: Materialy XXII Mizhnarodnoi naukovo-praktychnoi konferentsii [Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency of the XXIst century: Proceedings of XХIIth international scientific and practical online – conference], Kyiv, Ukraine, May 19-20, 2022, pp. 192-
  16. Bloomberg NEF 2H 2017 Wind Turbine Price Index (2018), available at: https://about.bnef. com/blog/2h-2017-wind-turbine-price-index/.
  17. IEA (2022), Critical minerals threaten a decades-long trend of cost declines for clean energy technologies, Paris, France, available at: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/critical-mine­rals-threaten-a-decades-long-trend-of-cost-declines-for-clean-energy-technologies.
  18. Telsnig, T. (2021), Wind Energy Technology Development Report 2020, DOI: 10.2760/
  19. Serrano‐González, J. and Lacal‐Arántegui, R. (2016), “Technological evolution of onshore wind turbines – a market‐based analysis’, Wind Energy, Vol. 19, pp. 2171-2187, DOI: 10.1002/we.1974.
    https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1974
  20. The Law of Ukraine “On the introduction of amendments to some laws of Ukraine regarding the improvement of the conditions for supporting the production of electricity from alternative energy sources”. Vidomosti Verkhovnoi Rady, 2020, No 50, p. 456. available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/810-20#Text.
  21. S. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (2021), Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition. DOE/GO-102021-5611.
  22. IRENA, available at: https://www.irena.org/Statistics/View-Data-by-Topic/Costs/Global-Trends (accessed July 25, 2022).

Full text: PDF